Inkingi n’Umugozi Unze: Imiterere y’Ingengo y’Imari ya Triliyoni 7.8 Frw y’u Rwanda

Mu gihe Minisitiri w’Imari n’Igenamigambi, Yusuf Murangwa, yamamazaga ingengo y’imari y’igihugu ingana na Triliyoni 7,796.3 Frw mu nteko ishinga amategeko imitwe yombi, kuri uyu wa 11 Kamena, iryo tangazo ryerekanye intambwe ikomeye mu migenamigambi y’ubukungu bushingiye kuri politiki y’akarere (geostrategic economic planning). Iyi ngengo y’imari yiyongeyeho 12% ku buryo bugaragara ugereranyije n’iyavuguruwe y’umwaka ushize, ikaba ije nk’imbarutso n’umusingi wa Gahunda ya Kabiri y’Igihugu yo Kwihutisha Iterambere (NST2: 2024–2029).

Iyi miterere ikora icyarimwe nka nkingi ikumira ibibazo (structural shield) ndetse n’umusemburo w’ishoramari, hagamijwe gukomeza umuvuduko ukomeye w’ubukungu bw’imbere mu gihugu, mu gihe birinda isoko ry’u Rwanda, ikaba kure y’inyanja, ku nkundura eshatu z’ingutu zituruka hanze: imihandagurikire y’ingufu ku isi, ikiguzi cy’umutekano mu karere, n’ihindagurika ry’uburyo bw’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga.

Imbaraga z’Ubukungu bw’Isi vs Umuvuduko w’Uburezi bw’Imbere mu Gihugu

U Rwanda rwatangiye uyu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari rushingiye ku muvuduko w’ubukungu wasize kure uwo mu bindi bihugu byo mu karere, aho rwinjije izamuka rya zeru ry’umusaruro mbanza (GDP) ryingana na 9.4% mu mwaka wa 2025. Cyakora, gukomeza uyu muvuduko bisaba guhangana n’igabanuka ry’ubukungu ku rwego rw’isi. Imbonerahamwe ya MINECOFIN yerekana ko izamuka ry’ubukungu bw’isi rizagabanuka kugeza kuri 3.1% uyu mwaka bitewe n’ubushyamirane bukomeje gufata indi ntera mu Burasirazuba bwo Gutagati.

Ukurikije ishusho y’ibyago byatanzwe na KPMG Rwanda National Budget Brief, ikomanyirizwa ryose ry’imihanda y’ubwikorezi bw’ibinure by’uburyo bw’ubukungu nka “Strait of Hormuz” rishobora kubura icyo bita stagflation ku isi, bishobora kugabanya izamuka ry’isi kugeza kuri 2.5% no kuzamura bikomeye ihindagurika ry’ibiciro ku bintu bituruka hanze. Mu gusesengura ibi bibazo mu Kiganiro cya Giminisitiri cyo gushyira ahagaragara imiterere y’Ingengo y’Imari muri Gicurasi 2026, Minisitiri Murangwa yagaragaje urwego rw’ingamba z’igihugu:

“Umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ubukungu bw’u Rwanda uracyari utajegajega, nubwo hari imihindagurikire igoye iterwa n’intambara yo mu Burasirazuba bwo Gutagati, ingaruka z’iziduka ry’ikirere, ubushyamirane bwa politiki n’intambara z’ubucuruzi mu rwego mpuzamahanga, n’ibindi. Guverinoma iracyiyemeje kubungabunga umutekano n’izamuka ry’ubukungu rusange (macroeconomic stability) no guteza imbere izamuka rya bose ishora imari mu nzego z’ingenzi nka True n’ingufu, ubuhinzi, inganda, ubuzima, mby’imibereho myiza, n’uburezi.”

Kugira ngo uyu muvuduko ugerweho, ingengo y’imari igabanyije mu nkingi eshatu z’ingenzi za NST2: Guhindura Ubukungu ku kigero cya 62.9% (Miliyari 4,900.9 Frw), Guhindura Imibereho y’Abaturage ku kigero cya 21.9% (Miliyari 1,711.3 Frw), n’Imiyoborere Itanga Impinduka ku kigero cya 15.2% (Miliyari 1,184.0 Frw).

Kugendera ku Mugozi Unze: Nkunga ku Buhinzi n’Ikizuzi cy’Ibikorwaremezo

Ikihutirwa mbere na mbere imbere mu gihugu ni ukugabanya ingaruka z’izamuka ry’ibiciro bituruka hanze, aho biteganyijwe ko ihindagurika ry’ibiciro rizagera ku mpuzandengo ya 10.4% uyu mwaka bitewe n’izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibibarurwa n’ingufu n’imiti ku rwego mpuzamahanga. Gusa mu kurinda ubushobozi bw’abaturage bwo guhaha, igihugu cyashyizeho nkunga itaziguye, aho cyikubye hafi kabiri inkunga ku mafumbire mvaruganda ava kuri Miliyari 39 Frw agera kuri Miliyari 64 Frw mu rwego rwo kwizera umusaruro w’abahinzi bacye n’umutekano w’ibiribwa mu gihugu.

Muri icyo gihe, leta ihangana n’ibibazo by’ubwikorezi bw’igihe kirekire ishora Miliyari 3,010.8 FRW mu bikorwa by’iterambere. Ibi birimo Miliyari 474.2 FRW zagenewe kwihutisha imirimo yo kubaka Ikibuga cy’Indege gishya Mpuzamahanga cya Kigali (NKIA) mu Bugesera, hamwe n’inkunga yongerewe mu kurinda ikigo cya RwandAir ku gihombo giterwa n’ihindagurika ry’ibiciro by’amavuta y’indege.

Nyamara, kuzana imashini zihariye n’ibyuma by’ubwubatsi bwa nkazi bwa Bugesera bizagura ikinyuranyo cy’ubucuruzi n’amahanga (current account deficit) kigere kuri Miliyari 2,599.5 FRW, icyo kibazo kikaba cyiyongereyeho igabanuka rya 31.8% ry’imfashanyo zituruka ku baterankunga. Mu gukumira uyu mwanda w’imyenda, ingengo y’imari ikurikiza gahunda nkarishye yo kugabanya amadeni n’amafaranga asohoka ifatanyije n’Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari (IMF). Mu gushyira imbere kwifuza inguzanyo n’inyungu zizwi imbere mu gihugu, leta igamije kumanura ikinyuranyo cy’ingengo y’imari y’igihugu cy’igihe kirekire kikitaba kirenze 3.1% by’Umusaruro Mbanza (GDP).

Ubushongore bw’Ingengo y’Imari: Ikoreshwa ry’Ikoranabuhanga n’Izigama rya Leta

Mu gutera inkunga uyu mushinga ukomeye mu gihe imfashanyo z’amahanga zizaba ari 7% gusa by’ingengo y’imari yose (Miliyari 548.3 FRW), u Rwanda ruri kwagura mu buryo bukomeye uburyo bwo kwinjiza amafaranga imbere mu gihugu binyuze muli “Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS I)”. Halku kuzamura imisoro y’ibanze, ikigamijwe ni ukunogza imenyekanisharisoro n’imikorere iboneye binyuze mu ikoranabuhanga:

• Igenzuramari ry’Ikoranabuhanga: Guhatira ikoreshwa rya mashini z’inyemezabwishyu z’ikoranabuhanga (EBMs) mu nzego zose z’ubucuruzi bucirritse bukoresha amafaranga mu ntoki.
• Gusorera Ubucuruzi bwo Kuri Interineti: Gushyira mu bikorwa Iteka rya Minisitiri rishya rimenyesha ko ibigo by’ikoranabuhanga n’imbuga z’ubucuruzi z’abanyamahanga bafite inshingano zo kwiyandikisha mu misoro ya TVA mu Rwanda.
• Igenzura ry’Ihererekanyamafaranga ry’Ibigo Bifitanye Isano (Transfer Pricing): Gushyira mu bikorwa Iteka rya Minisitiri No. 003/26/10/TC, ridasubirwaho ryamenyesheje ko imigenderanire y’ubucuruzi bw’ibigo bifitanye isano igomba gukurikiza amategeko agenga ibiciro by’isoko rusange. Mu kugabanya ingaruka ku bushabatsi, leta yazanye uburyo bwa Advance Pricing Agreement (APA) buha ibigo bikorera mu mategeko umutekano w’ibiciro mbere y’uko bikora.

Iri zamuka ry’isoresha riri gufanywa n’izigama rikomeye mu gukoresha amafaranga ya leta. Amafaranga y’ibihembo by’abakozi ba leta yashyiriweho umupaka binyuze mu guhagarika dushya twose tw’abakozi binjira mu nzego za leta (uretse abigisha, abakozi b’ubuzima n’inzego z’umutekano). Amafaranga akoreshwa mu ngendo z’akazi hanze, imfashanyo z’ingendo z’indege, n’amahugurwa byagabanutse cyane hashyirwa imbere inama zo kuri interineti, mu gihe leta yatangiye uburyo bwo guhahira hamwe ibikoresho by’ubuzima n’amafumbire mu rwego rwo kugabanya ikiguzi.

Umusingi w’Ubusugire: Gutera Inkunga Umutekano w’Akarere

Muri ibi bihe by’ibibazo by’umutekano n’uhungabana rwa hato na hato ry’agahenge bituruka mu gihugu cyegeranye cya Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Kongo (RDC), kubungabunga umutekano w’imbere mu gihugu bifatwa nka zahabu y’ubukungu rusange — ari na wo musingi utajegajega ukenewe mu gukurura ishoramari ry’abanyamahanga n’ubukerarugendo bw’icyubahiro.

Guhangana k’u Rwanda n’ibi bibazo by’akarere kugaragarira mu kigero cyo kwihaza mu ngengo y’imari, aho 93% by’ingengo y’imari yose bituruka mu mutungo w’imbere mu gihugu n’inguzanyo zo mu gihugu. Ibi birinda igenzura ry’imipaka n’umutekano w’imbere mu gihugu guhungabanywa n’ihindagurika ry’imfashanyo z’amahanga. Byongeye kandi, leta yagennye Miliyari 224.1 FRW agenewe gusa ibikorwa byo kubungabunga amahoro (Peace Keeping Operations).

Uyu mutekano watumye urwego rw’imari rwishyira ku gipimo cyo gukoresha ikoranabuhanga rigezweho. Bikuruwe n’ikoreshwa rya terefone n’urubuga rwa interineti muri banki, agaciro kose k’ubwishyu bwa elegitoroniki ugereranyije na GDP kageze kuri 199.9%, ibi bituma ibikorwa by’ihererekanyamafaranga bigaragara neza. Muri icyo gihe, gahunda y’izigama ry’igihe kirekire y’abari mu rwego rw’ubushabatsi bw’abatari mu bakozi ba leta, EjoHeza, yarenze abanyamuryango miliyoni 3 bacye baraye batanze umusanzu, naho Ikigo Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari cya Kigali (KIFC) kimaze kwandika ibigo bishya barenze 110, bikomeza gushimangira Kigali nka kimwe mu bigo bikomeye by’imari irambye muri Afurika.

Ubutwari Bufite Intego

Ingengo y’imari y’igihugu ya 2026/27 yerekanye ko u Rwanda rwanze kuba indorerezi mu bibazo by’ubukungu bw’isi cyangwa ubushyamirane bw’akarere. Mu guhuza hafi twe by’eshatu z’amafaranga yose asohoka n’inkingi za NST2, guverinoma yaremye ingengo y’imari ikora nk’icyuma gikiza ubukungu ihungabana ryose. Mu gufasha ubuhinzi bwabwo, gukura ubwikorezi bwabwo mu menyo y’ibiciro by’ingufu z’isi, gukumira ikwirakwizwa ry’imisoro binyuze mu gushyiraho urunyfrere rw’isoresha rya elegitoroniki, n’ukurinda imipaka yarwo binyuze mu mutungo w’imbere mu gihugu, Kigali yubatse umusingi ufite ubushobozi bwo guhindura imvuvugano z’isi mo iterambere rirambye ry’imbere mu gihugu. Icyerekezo cya Vision 2050 kirakomeza nta nkomyi.